Crude oil:
MondayWinrealmoneynodepositSC2406, the main contract for crude oil, closed down 0.Winrealmoneynodeposit.69% to 615 yuan per barrel; WTI June contract closed up 86 cents per barrel to 79.12 US dollars per barrel, up 1.10 per cent; Brent July crude oil contract closed up 57 cents per barrel, or 0.69 per cent, to 83.36 US dollars per barrel. Oil loading at western Russian ports is expected to fall to 8.5 million tonnes in May from about 9.5 million tonnes in April, largely in line with market expectations, as domestic refineries have recovered from seasonal and unplanned shutdowns. Short-term oil prices fluctuate weakly under the suppression of macro and geographical factors, and there is still no obvious marginal support on the supply and demand side. We are concerned about whether the meeting of OPEC+ on June 1 will extend the current production reduction plan to the second half of this year. At present, the market expects that under the background of oil price correction, OPEC may maintain the production reduction measures from the end of last year to the present.
Fuel oil:
On Monday, FU2409, the main contract for fuel oil in the previous issue, closed down 1.58% at 3363 yuan / ton, while LU2407, the main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil, closed down 0.9% at 4306 yuan / ton. The flow of low-sulphur arbitrage goods into Singapore from the Western Hemisphere is expected to decrease in May, although demand for low-sulphur downstream is relatively flat. In recent weeks, the supply of high sulfur in Asia has been limited, while refining demand from China and India has remained stable, and the fundamentals of the high sulfur market will continue to be supported. Recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term FU and LU absolute prices will follow the oil price volatility is weak, high-sulfur performance may be stronger than low-sulfur, high-low sulfur price difference will maintain a low level.
Asphalt:
On Monday, BU2409, the main contract for asphalt in the previous period, closed down 41% at 3671 yuan / ton. Although the diluted asphalt discount has dropped recently, the profit repair of refinery processing asphalt is limited. The refinery production schedule in May is still on the low side compared with the same period last year, and the actual output in April is also lower than the previous production schedule. In April, the total domestic asphalt output was 2.2846 million tons, down 3.93% from the previous month; year-on-year decline of 17.32%; with the increase of diluted asphalt flow in the future, asphalt supply is expected to rise; there has been no obvious sign of improvement on the demand side. Post-holiday asphalt demand is weak, although the supply increment is limited, but the inventory pressure is greater. Due to the recent oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the short-term BU absolute price will be weaker with the oil price volatility.
Rubber:
On Monday, RU2409, the main force of Shanghai rubber, rose 275 yuan / ton to 14405 yuan / ton, NR rose 295 yuan / ton to 11980 yuan / ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 280 yuan / ton to 13380 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai whole latex 13500 (+ 100), whole milk-RU2409 spread-745 (+ 60), RMB mixed 13350 (+ 200), mixed-RU2409 spread-895 (+ 160), BR9000 Qilu spot 13300 (- 100), BR9000-BR main force 100 (- 170). In March 2024, Malaysia's Tianjiao exports increased by 28.8% to 58965 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 7% over the previous month, of which 48.9% were exported to China. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, Tianjiao continues to go to the warehouse, and the extent of removing the stock of dark glue is greater than that of light glue, and the support for glue 20 is stronger than that of RU. Thailand has recently begun to harvest, but is about to enter the rainy season, pay attention to the extreme weather in the producing areas and the timing of follow-up storage. Butadiene rubber start-up fell, output shrank, downstream semi-steel tire support stabilized, butadiene rubber price shock was strong.
Polyester:
TA409 closed yesterday at 5776 yuan / ton, down 0.69%; spot offer discount 09 contract-14 yuan / ton. EG2409 closed yesterday at 4409 yuan / ton, up 0.59%, the basis decreased by 2 yuan / ton to-62 yuan / ton, spot quotation 4330 yuan / ton. The main contract of PX futures closed at 8312 yuan / ton, down 0.6%. The spot negotiation price is US $1003 / ton, the RMB price is 8364 yuan / ton, and the base difference is narrowed by 75 yuan / ton to 36 yuan / ton. A 260000 t / an ethylene glycol plant from syngas in Inner Mongolia has recently been stopped for maintenance for some reason, and the time is expected to be about 10 days. The production and marketing of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are differentiated, and the average production and marketing is estimated to be about 5-60%. As of May 13, the inventory of MEG port in the main port area of East China was about 769000 tons, down 45000 tons from the previous period. Under the drag of insufficient cost support and weak demand, the price of polyester raw materials will fall, but the centralized maintenance of TA will improve the supply and demand structure of TA, and the extent of removal is still considerable. From the point of view of ethylene glycol, the overall start-up of ethylene glycol remained negative, and the oil production decreased significantly in April. Downstream polyester start-up load fell, but ethylene glycol port inventory is still being removed, it is expected that short-term ethylene glycol low-level finishing.
Methanol:
On Monday, the spot price of Taicang was 2790 yuan / ton, the price of Inner Mongolia North Line was 2390 yuan / ton, the price of CFR China was 300-305 U.S. dollars / ton, the price of CFR Southeast Asia was 360-365 U.S. dollars / ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract was 2601 yuan / ton, up 57 yuan / ton from yesterday's settlement price. Downstream, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1225 yuan / ton, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu is 3250-3350 yuan / ton, and the price of MTBE in Shandong is 7000 yuan / ton. On the supply side, there are still more maintenance devices than restart devices, and the domestic supply is still expected to be reduced. From the perspective of the internal and external price difference, the price of China's arrival to Hong Kong is low, it is expected that the volume of arrival will be reduced, and the overall supply will tend to tighten. On the demand side, the current MTO profit is not good, and the expectation of lower construction is still high. Although some of the traditional downstream profits are better, the overall demand is limited, and it is expected that the comprehensive demand is still weaker than the previous month. In terms of inventory, although supply-side expectations are weak, short-term downstream demand expectations are not strong, so mainland inventories may still have cumulative pressure, while the overall inventory pressure on the port side is not great, and the total inventory has a small cumulative expectation. Generally speaking, the overall inventory level of methanol is low at present, and although the demand is expected to weaken periodically, it is still better than last year, so methanol does not have the conditions to fall sharply in the long run, so it is treated with strong shock.
Polypropylene:
On Monday, the mainstream of wire drawing in East China was 7550-7720 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. (300000 tons / year) PP plant restart. Dongming Sinopec (200000 tons / year) PP plant shutdown maintenance. The second line of Yangzi Petrochemical Company (200000 t / a) PP plant is stopped for maintenance. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil-based PP is-1016.21 yuan / ton; the gross profit of coal-based PP production is-434.7 yuan / ton; the gross profit of methanol-based PP production is-913.67 yuan / ton; the gross profit of propane dehydrogenation-PP production is-533.6 yuan / ton; and the gross profit of propylene-based PP production is-17.83 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, with the gradual increase of supply pressure, there will be a certain stock expectation at the inventory end, and if the oil price cannot provide support, short-term polypropylene still has the possibility to repair downwards. at present, the core factor that determines the L-PP price difference comes from the landing of the production plan. the early market expects the new PP production capacity to be realized as scheduled, leading to the continued strength of L-PP price spread. at present, although PDH profits continue to recover. However, it is still in a state of loss, and the profit level is the same as that of the same period last year, so if the new capacity is not landed as planned, the L-PP spread may weaken, and the follow-up focus will be on the time of the new capacity and the change of the injection molding start-up rate.
Polyethylene:
On Monday, the mainstream price in the East China HDPE spot market was 8550 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; the mainstream price in the East China LDPE market was 9800 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; the mainstream price in the North China LLDPE market was 8400 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day; and polyethylene futures closed at 8480 yuan / ton, up 39 yuan / ton from the previous working day. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil polyethylene market is-387 yuan / ton, and that of coal polyethylene market is 1245 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, with the gradual reduction of maintenance volume and the slowdown of demand, the pressure on the supply side will gradually appear, while the higher social inventory still does not show a rapid downward trend, and to a certain extent falsifies the expectation of good demand, so it is expected that the short-term LLDPE price will be dominated by weak consolidation, paying attention to the upstream refinery maintenance and the change of social inventory.
Polyvinyl chloride:
On Monday, East China PVC market prices increased, calcium carbide type 5 material 5650-5750 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 5800-5900 yuan / ton; North China PVC market price rose slightly, calcium carbide method 5 type material mainstream reference 5580-5680 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 5800-6040 yuan / ton; South China PVC market price reduction, calcium carbide method 5 type material mainstream reference 5720-5800 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream quotation in 5770-5910 yuan / ton. Futures closed at 6043 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand, and the contradiction of the long-short game is the high level of social inventory, but the upstream refinery inventory actually dropped more than last year, while spot prices are at the low level of nearly five years, as long as macro sentiment remains stable, demand will be stable and good, and it is unlikely that refineries will significantly reduce prices, so it is expected that short-term PVC price shocks are strong, focusing on changes in social inventory.
Urea:
Urea futures prices fluctuated strongly on Monday, and the spot market rose synchronously. Prices in mainstream areas were mostly raised by 10-20 yuan per ton, while prices in Hebei were raised by 60 yuan per ton. In the near future, the construction of planned maintenance enterprises has gradually declined, and the supply level of the industry has dropped as expected. Yesterday, the daily output of urea was 176400 tons, a decrease of 200 tons compared with the same period last year, which is still slightly higher than the same period last year. Demand side continued to follow up, urea production and sales again rose to a high level, short-term support to the market. After the obvious rise in urea prices, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the middle and lower reaches, so it is necessary to guard against the negative feedback effects that market resistance may bring. Overall, urea fundamentals are still strong in the short term, and futures prices are expected to continue to maintain a strong volatility trend in the short term. Urea and other agricultural materials are still in the general direction of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and the space above is relatively limited, so it is not recommended to pursue it too much. Pay attention to the changes in supply and demand, domestic policy orientation and the overall trend of the commodity market.
Soda ash:
The price of soda ash futures on Monday was strong during the day and fell back at night. The overall trend of the spot market is stable, and the price of light alkali in some areas has fallen slightly. The quotation of light alkali by traders is relatively strong, while that of heavy alkali fluctuates in a narrow range. From a fundamental point of view, recent alkali plant starts fluctuated within a narrow range, with the industry operating rate rising slightly to 85.76% yesterday. In the middle and late ten days, there are still some large factories overhauling, and the supply-side support is still there. The demand performance is general, the light alkali transaction is OK, the heavy alkali transaction is relatively general, and the high price transaction is in conflict. Short-term alkali plant orders to be issued under the support of a substantial price reduction is likely to be low, soda ash futures prices are expected to maintain a wide volatility trend. Mid-term angle seasonal maintenance peak will also continue to bring support to the market, pay attention to the intensity of enterprise maintenance, news surface disturbance.
Glass:
On Monday, the average price of glass in the spot market was stable at 1693 yuan / ton, and the prices of individual enterprises rose. Recently, boosted by the real estate policy, the mood of the glass market has improved significantly, and the spot production and sales performance is also relatively good. Yesterday, the production and sales rate in Shahe area was 106%, and production and sales in other areas were also relatively strong, but the overall market turnover was lower than that of last week. It should be noted that the real estate industry warms up to the implementation of glass demand may still take time, glass spot high turnover can be maintained worthy of attention. Glass futures prices are expected to continue the trend of wide volatility, weak within the day, pay attention to spot transactions and changes in market mentality.