News summary
Steel market supply increasesuptownacesnodepositInventories are declining and demand is still acceptable. Thread performance needs to be increased to the highest value and cost support is strong. Pay attention to fiscal policies and hold multiple orders. The target thread is about 3900 yuan and the hot roll is about 4100 yuan.
Newsletter text
[Thread and hot rolled contract prices rise] As of May 16, the main contract price of rebar reached 3716 yuan, up 54 yuan from last week. The spot price in East China climbed to 3660 yuan, up 50 yuan. The futures market showed a premium of 56 yuan; The main contract price of hot rolled coil rose to 3849 yuan, up 43 yuan month-on-month. The spot price in East China rose to 3860 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan, and the futures market was discounted by 11 yuan.
[Increase in steel supply] As of May 17, the total average daily supply of iron elements reached 290uptownacesnodeposit.9,000 tons, an increase of 4.4% from the previous weekuptownacesnodeposit.40,000 tons. Among them, the output of molten iron increased by 24,000 tons, the daily consumption of scrap steel increased by 20,000 tons, and the total output of the five major steel products increased to 8.895 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 37,000 tons. The output of non-five major steel products was 4.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,000 tons. Specific to varieties, rebar output increased by 297 to 2.336 million tons month-on-month, while hot rolled plate output decreased by 0.46 to 3.247 million tons month-on-month.
[Demand growth is significant] As of May 16, the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased to 9.631 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 349,000 tons. Among specific varieties, the apparent demand for rebar increased to 2.903 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 284,000 tons, while the apparent demand for hot-rolled plates increased to 3.305 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 74,000 tons. This indicates that apparent demand for rebar has increased this yearuptownacesnodepositAt its highest point, overall demand performed well.
[Inventory decline] As of May 16, the total inventory of the five major steel products dropped to 18.866 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 424,000 tons. Total rebar inventories fell by 313,000 tons month-on-month to 8.833 million tons, and hot rolled plate inventories fell by 58,000 tons month-on-month to 4.157 million tons. This reduction in inventory reflects that the current destocking speed in the steel market is accelerating and the demand situation is relatively optimistic.
[Market Outlook] Against the background of continued growth in steel supply, the destocking speed has increased, and demand for rebar has risen to an annual high. Based on the current situation, steel demand remains positive. The reduction in coking coal production and the increase in molten iron output have provided solid support for steel costs. Market participants should continue to pay attention to bond issuance and the implementation of fiscal policies. These factors are expected to continue to drive steel demand. At present, holders of multiple orders should pay close attention to the previous high pressure level. Once an effective breakthrough is achieved, the target price for threads may be around 3900 yuan, while the target price for hot coils will be around 4100 yuan.