Newsletter summary
Egg prices rise across the countryAsianseagameThe average price in the main producing areas is 3.Asianseagame.50 yuan per jin, the average price in the main selling area was 3.66 yuan per jin, and the 09 contract fell by 0.17%. The stock of laying hens increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 4.6% compared with the same period last year. Market supply exceeds demand, and spot pressure remains during the rainy season. It is expected that egg prices may be strong in the short term, but valuation repair is possible.
Text of news flash
[egg prices rose nationwide today, investors need to pay attention to market sentiment and spot follow-up]
Today, the national egg market ushered in a nationwide rise in prices. According to the data, the average price in the main producing areas rose to 3.50 yuan / jin, an increase of 0.12 yuan / jin compared with yesterday; at the same time, the average price in the main selling areas also rose to 3.66 yuan / jin, an increase of 0.13 yuan / jin over yesterday. In addition, the 09 contract in the futures market also fell by 0.17%.
In April, despite low spot prices, demand for Qingming Festival and May Day did not significantly boost egg prices, and the market was generally pessimistic. However, contracts rose sharply by more than 5 per cent in recent months at the end of April, speculation is expected to rise in some parts of the spot market, and futures contracts have risen much faster than spot, reflecting the extreme amplification of market sentiment. Although contracts have fallen again in recent months, spot prices in Northeast China and Shanxi have steadily risen slightly, driven by demand for replenishment after May Day, and there has also been an increase in parts of Henan and Hebei. In the futures market, contracts have risen by the limit in recent months, significantly ahead of the spot market, highlighting the difficulty of operation.
At present, the volatility of egg futures is considered to be large, although the general direction is weak, but the upward elasticity is great. After today's rise, investors need to pay close attention to the follow-up efforts of the spot market. In the long run, with the continuous emergence of new laying hens, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the second quarter remains unchanged, the pressure of the rainy season remains, and the market is expected to rebound for a short-term market. In the short term, egg prices may remain strong under the dual support of sentiment and the spot market, but when replenishment ends, high prices may restrain downstream shipments, which may then face the possibility of valuation repair.
Industry data show that the current layer storage column shows a warming trend. By the end of April, the monthly stock of laying hens in the country had increased to about 1.24 billion, an increase of 0.6 per cent from the previous month and 4.6 per cent from the same period last year.
The emergence of laying hens in April was basically stable, about 45.82 million, which was not much different from that of 45.04 million in March. Historically, the number of supplementary fences in April was at a seasonal peak, at a moderate level, slightly higher than that in the year of the epidemic, but significantly lower than that in 2019. In addition, the number of Taobao chickens has warmed up since April. Although the price of eggs is weak and the feed cost is high, the number of Taobao chickens has increased week by week, with an average age of 501 days, seven days earlier than at the end of last month.