There was a sudden explosion.
May 9th, strongUltimatexdeuceswildvideopokerThe main contract of the container transportation index (European line) soared, rising more than 12% at one point in intraday trading, setting a new record. The sharp rally, which began on March 15 this year, has risen by 206%. Affected by this, A-share shipping plate skyrocketed across the board, Phoenix Shipping and COSCO Haifa rose by the daily limit. COSCO Sea Control, known as the "king of the cycle", rose more than 9%, and its share price hit a new high since March 2022.
This surge is mainly driven by three factors, among which the warming of the geographical situation is the main reason for the continued rise in the main futures contracts of the Container Index European line; secondly, spot quotations are rising all the way up. The major liner companies are carrying out the second round of freight rate increases in May one after another. Third, the demand side also continues to pick up, and the demand for international trade is improving. Both the growth rate of retail sales in the United States and the trend of manufacturing PMI in major emerging countries are in the upward stage, supporting the rise of the main European futures contract of the Container Index.
In addition, the latest news shows that the situation in the Red Sea continues to be tense. On May 9, local time, Yemeni Houthi spokesman Yahya Saleya said in a televised speech that the Houthi armed forces had attacked a number of ships related to Israel. Targets include the Diego and Genna in the Gulf of Aden, which also carried out two strikes on the Victoria in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. According to CCTV news, on May 9, local time, a loud explosion was heard in Hodeida, Yemen.
Big explosion
Today, the main contract of the strong Container Index (European Line) suddenly broke out, rising more than 12% at one point in intraday trading, reaching a peak of 3509.Ultimatexdeuceswildvideopoker.9, setting a new record, with an increase of 11% as of the close.Ultimatexdeuceswildvideopoker.97% to close at 3486.2.
According to the market chart, this sharp rally began on March 15 and has lasted for more than seven weeks, with the main contract price soaring from a low of 1411 to today's closing price of 3486.2, a cumulative increase of 206 per cent.
The Sino-Thai futures finance team said that recently, the Container Index (European Line) futures market has experienced a sharp and rapid rise, the weighted index and all futures contracts have reached record highs, and the total market position has also risen to the highest level since mid-January. market liquidity has strengthened significantly.
Affected by this, A-share shipping plate burst, Phoenix Shipping, COSCO Haifa rose by the daily limit, COSCO Sea Control, known as the "king of the cycle", rose more than 9%, and its share price reached a new high since March 2022. In addition, Air China COSCO, China Merchants South Oil, Ningbo Cosco, Sheng Airlines shares, HNA technology and other stocks also rose collectively.
On the news side, due to the disturbance of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and port congestion caused by route diversion, freight rates are still expected to rise strongly, and the next round of increases will begin in mid-May.
Industry insiders said that at present, major liner companies are carrying out the second round of freight rate increases in May one after another, at the same time, the demand side of the European line is long, the volume of goods is positive and the spot volume is stable; on the supply side, the ships caused by the Red Sea detour are unable to return on time, and the tight supply and demand pattern of container transportation forms an effective support for the increase in freight rates, promoting the strong operation of the container transport futures market.
Why is it soaring?Ultimatexdeuceswildvideopoker?
Looking back at the big rise in the main contract of the Container Index (European line), it is mainly driven by the following three factors:
Among them, the warming of the geopolitical situation is the main reason why the main futures contracts of the Container Index continue to rise. Maersk, a global shipping company, said disruption to container shipping in the Red Sea was increasing and capacity between the far East and Europe was expected to fall by 15 to 20 per cent in the second quarter of this year.
In the latest updated warning to its customers, Maersk pointed out that dangerous areas in the Red Sea are expanding and farther offshore are beginning to be attacked, which will further prolong sailing times and push up freight rates.
In recent months, due to continuing tensions in the Red Sea, many international shipping companies, including Maersk, have been forced to abandon the Red Sea route and divert to Africa, with ships bypassing the southwestern tip of the Cape of good Hope. According to Maersk's previous prediction, the disturbance to the shipping industry caused by the situation in the Red Sea may continue until the end of this year.
Second, the spot quotation all the way up, supporting the Container Index European futures contract rose sharply. Dafei will raise FAK rates from Asia to Nordic again from May 15, with 20GP at $2700 and 40GP at $5000, up $500 and $1000 respectively compared with the freight rates implemented on May 1. Hebrot raised the quotation for Asia-Nordic routes to $2150 / TEU and $4100 / FEU, an increase of $500 / TEU and $1000 / FEU compared with the first round at the beginning of May.
According to the current market situation, the early price increase landing situation is better, the shipowner price increase still has a certain boost to the market sentiment.
In addition, from the demand side, the demand for international trade is improving, both the growth rate of retail sales in the United States and the trend of manufacturing PMI in major emerging countries are in the upward stage. According to the forecast of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, China's shipping confidence index in the second quarter of 2024 is 114.77 points, which is expected to rise 17.13 points over the previous quarter, rebounding from a weak depression to a relative prosperity range, and all business confidence indices are back to the boom range.
However, some analysts suggest that the current factors affecting the shipping market are complex, and participants need to pay attention to many factors. With the return of some liner ships in late May, the supply of transport capacity will be significantly increased, which may put pressure on freight rates. Investors cannot judge the trend of freight rates solely on the basis of the off-peak season of the traditional shipping market.
Red Sea burst
The latest news shows that on May 9 local time, Yemeni Houthi spokesman Yahya Saleya said in a televised speech that the Houthi armed forces had carried out attacks on a number of ships related to Israel.
Yahya Zaleya said the Houthi targets included the MSC DEGO and Genna in the Gulf of Aden, and the group also carried out two strikes on the MSC VITTORIA in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea.
According to the United States Central Command, between 23:02 and 23:48 on May 6, Houthi forces in Yemen launched three drones over the Gulf of Aden. Two of them were successfully shot down, and the last one crashed in the Gulf of Aden. No casualties were reported in the incident.
The report said that around 05:02 on May 7, Sana'a, the Houthi armed forces fired an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Gulf of Aden, causing no casualties.
Earlier, Yemeni Houthi spokesman Yahya Saleya had warned that the scope of the attack on Israeli-related ships would be extended to the Mediterranean region.
Mr Zaleya said he would crack down on any ship sailing to Israeli ports in any area within the Mediterranean region and its range, and stressed that the escalation would be "effective immediately".
Israel's Mediterranean port is about 2000 kilometers north of Yemen, and it is not clear how much impact the Houthi plan will have on the region.
Shortly after the outbreak of the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7, 2023, the Houthi began to attack ships linked to Israel in the waters of the Red Sea to show "support for Palestine." Since January 12, 2024, the United States and Britain have successively launched air strikes against Houthi armed targets, resulting in many deaths and injuries. This also makes the situation in the Red Sea tense, causing the major shipping giants to adjust their routes or raise freight rates one after another.