Affected by the stabilization of CPI in the United States in AprilTopfreetoplaycryptogamesThe market rekindled expectations of Fed easing and gold market performance was boosted by the dollar index falling at the same time as US bond interest rates. The performance of domestic investors is differentiated, and the market investors have a strong willingness to follow the trend.
From a market point of view, in the past week (5TopfreetoplaycryptogamesGold moved up again, with dollar-denominated gold topping $2400 again at the close of trading on Friday. In the United States, CPI in April was 3.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 3.5%. The year-on-year reading finally fell back after three consecutive months of rebound. Although judging from the breakdown, inflation cooled only marginally in April, and the absolute level of most of the items is still high. Among them, energy inflation has increased for three consecutive months, while oil prices have fallen recently; the improvement in housing inflation is not obvious enough; the part of non-housing services has fallen temporarily, but the follow-up trend is more uncertain. At the same time, a total of eight Fed officials issued policy views that week, and most of them mentioned the importance of patience, indicating that they are more inclined to maintain existing policy interest rates until they are convinced that inflation is moving towards its goal. that is, there is no further transmission of easing expectations to the market. However, the market was not impressed by the Fed's statement, with retail sales and news starts released during the week falling short of expectations, and the weakening economy made the market more confident that the Fed would try to stay loose before the election. Gold's performance was again boosted by the falling dollar and US bond yields.
The trend of gold since mid-May is significantly stronger than we expected, and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation to some extent bridges the gap between the two logical paths of downward interest rates caused by re-inflation and economic weakening. Under the influence of many factors, such as geopolitics, trend game, economic expectation and re-inflation, the volatility of gold assets in the future may be at a historically high level for a long time. This means that historical experience may be difficult to provide effective help for gold's short-term path judgment. But what is certain is that against the backdrop of rising global financial asset volatility, the Fed's pre-election care of liquidity will keep gold's medium-term trend running steadily.
In terms of market dynamics, inflation in the United States moderated in April compared with the previous period. Us CPI rose 0.3 per cent last month after rising 0.4 per cent in March and February, indicating that inflation returned to a downward trend at the beginning of the second quarter, boosting financial market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Economists polled by Reuters had expected CPI to rise 0.4 per cent, or 3.4 per cent year-on-year.
Us retail sales unexpectedly fell to zero in April from a month earlier. Us retail sales rose 0 per cent in April from a month earlier, below market expectations of 0.4 per cent, and the previous value was revised to 0.6 per cent from 0.7 per cent. Retail sales excluding cars increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while retail sales excluding cars and gasoline fell 0.1% month-on-month, and core retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month. The figures reflect that consumers have become more cautious in the face of high borrowing costs and increased debt, with weaker demand, especially restrictions on the purchase of non-essential goods. Despite the strong performance of the labour market, high prices and interest rates may put pressure on household finances.
Boshi Gold ETF Fund (159937) and linked funds (002610j002611) track the performance of RMB gold prices through gold spot contracts invested in the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Investors can buy linked funds through official channels such as Boshi Fund APP and Boshi Fund official website, with a minimum of 1 yuan (specifically subject to the announcement of each channel), which further enriches the way investors invest in gold.
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