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ProduceBlockchainunityResearch Institute of Sina Finance listed companies
Author: wave Diet / Hao Xian
"the liquor industry is in the most severe and complex development point in history," Zeng Congqin, chairman of Wuliangye Group, made such a judgment at the 2023 China International famous Liquor Expo.
Since the second quarter of last year, the liquor industry has experienced some problems, such as the spring sugar meeting is not as expected, moving sales are not as expected, the channel is out of stock, dealers sell goods, products are upside down, and so on. In this case, the industry began to carry out a new round of reshuffle, the concentration of market share further increased, the losses of small and medium-sized wine enterprises increased, while the performance of famous wine and large wine enterprises was relatively stable.
20 listed liquor companies achieve 4121 in 2023BlockchainunityRevenue of 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15.65% over the same period last year, was the same as the total revenue growth rate of 15.13% last year. The net profit was 155.146 billion yuan, an increase of 18.88% over the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased by 1.45% over the same period last year.
Under the overall stability, the undercurrent surged, the growth of high-end liquor maintained steady growth, while the nationalized sub-high-end liquor was seriously divided, and many companies showed obvious weakness in growth, such as alcoholic liquor revenue fell by 30.14%, and Shuijingfang revenue increased by only 6%. Due to the stable basic market, regional wine enterprises have made a good increase in the context of the recovery of consumer demand for public banquets. By contrast, small wine companies dominated by low-end wines, such as Golden seed Liquor and Huangtai Liquor, have fallen into losses.
Inventory: alcoholic wine, willing to wine industry, Kouzi cellar inventory growth rate exceeds revenue growth rate, Wuliangye capacity utilization rate has dropped greatly
In 2023, channel inventory has become a common problem in the liquor industry. In the case of poor mobile sales, liquor companies will generally stop goods as a countermeasure.
In April this year, the media reported that Guizhou Xi Liquor sales Company took the initiative to suspend the supply of products to dealers whose inventory ratio exceeded the red line, and the number of dealers involved now reached nearly 100.
In December 2023, in order to guarantee the price, Wuliangye also announced a 20% reduction in the volume of the eighth-generation Pu-5 contract for each dealer in the new contract in 2024. In the Wuliangye reduction at the same time, Luzhou laojiao reduced the 52 degrees national cellar 1573 classic price, in order to stabilize the channel.
At present, liquor channel inventory still lacks a unified measurement index. from the inventory of listed companies, the total inventory of 20 listed liquor companies in 2023 is 149.095 billion yuan, an increase of 12% over the same period last year.
The five companies with the fastest inventory growth are Rock shares (rights protection), the fate of the world, Gujing tribute wine, willing wine industry, Kouzi cellar. There are five companies whose inventory growth exceeds revenue growth, namely, alcoholic wine, willing wine industry, Kouzi cellar, Gujing tribute wine, Guizhou Moutai. Among them, the revenue of alcoholic liquor decreased by 30.14% last year, while inventory increased by 9.85%.
Although the liquor industry has entered a phase of reduction, large liquor companies are still expanding their production capacity to increase production of high-end base spirits in order to reserve ammunition for future product upgrades. This has led to a decline in capacity utilization. Take Wuliangye as an example, its designed production capacity increased from 142800 tons in 2022 to 175600 tons in 2023, while its actual capacity only increased from 104300 tons to 119600 tons, resulting in a reduction in capacity utilization from 73 per cent to 68 per cent.
Accounts receivable: large amount of accounts receivable financing deposited in Wuliangye and Luzhou laojiao
Generally speaking, liquor companies adopt the business model of "payment before goods", and the accounts receivable are relatively small. The three companies with the largest amount of receivables plus notes receivable in 2023 are Yanghe shares, wine industry and Kouzi cellar, all of which are about 500 million yuan.
However, it is worth mentioning that Wuliangye and Luzhou laojiao have large receivables financing, Wuliangye reached 14.086 billion yuan, Luzhou laojiao reached 5.938 billion yuan. Accounts receivable financing refers to the financing behavior that enterprises transfer or pledge undue accounts receivable to banks or other financial institutions, obtain certain capital loans, and bear the corresponding interest and formalities costs.
Combined with the sharp drop in contract liabilities of Wuliangye last year, Wuliangye may have increased its support to dealers, allowing them to settle bills of exchange by bank acceptance.
In fact, the channel pressure was exposed at the end of last year when Wuliangye announced that it would reduce the number of universal five contracts, while Luzhou laojiao lowered the price of Tequ and Guojiao by 1573 dozen, which the company called "profit pre-adjustment for some customers." the main purpose is to support dealers.