White sugar: it is difficult to break through the price of raw sugar for the time being
Raw sugar: the future price of raw sugar is arranged in a narrow range this week. Brazil exports sugar and molasses 188 in the first five weeks of AprilCrashteamrumble.920000 tons, with an average daily export volume of 85900 tons, an increase of 59 per cent over the average daily export volume of 54000 tons for the whole month of April last year. The monthly export volume in April last year was 971600 tons. The USDA expects Thailand's sugar production to return to 10.2 million tons during the 2024mp 25th squeeze season, an increase of 16 per cent over the 2023Universe 24 crushing season; sugar exports will be 9 million tons.
Domestic: spot price in Guangxi is 6530-6590 yuan / ton, which is higher than that of last week. The estimated price of imports within the quota is 5500-5560 yuan / ton; the estimated price of imports outside the quota is 7030-7090 yuan / ton.
Summary: the recent market focus on Brazil is still on squeezing progress and production estimation. Datagro, a consultancy, predicts that sugar production in south-central Brazil will fall by 1.9% to 41.6 million tons during the 2024 season, 10.5 million tons in Thailand, up from 8.77 million tons in the 2023 season, and 31.5 million tons in India, down 900000 tons from the 2023 season. Various countries are expected to increase production to varying degrees, long-term sugar prices are under pressure. Short-term futures experienceCrashteamrumbleAfter the previous adjustment, it is difficult to make a breakthrough, still dominated by narrow concussion. The issue of Indian exports is still unclear and needs to be paid attention to in the future.
According to the domestic production and marketing data in April, by the end of April, all sugar factories in other provinces (regions) except Yunnan Province had been squeezed during the 2023 / 24 sugar production period. The country produced a total of 9.9539 million tons of sugar, an increase of 990000 tons or 11.06 percent over the same period last year. Among them, it produces 8.8149 million tons of sugar sugar and 1.139 million tons of beet sugar. A total of 5.7465 million tons of sugar were sold nationwide, an increase of 598200 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 11.62 percent, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 57.73 percent, an increase of 0.29 percent over the same period last year. The inventory of the sugar industry was 4.2074 million tons, an increase of 392700 tons over the same period last year. The sales data performed well, and spot quotations rebounded slightly this week. Still treats the current price with the concussion train of thought, under the expectation of loose long-term supply of raw sugar, the domestic forward import pressure still exists, and the forward price rebound is highly restricted.
Cotton: the fundamental support is weak, Zheng cotton is under pressure.
1. Supply side: global cotton production is expected to increase in 2024, mainly from the United States and Brazil, and there is still some room for upward adjustment in China's cotton production forecast.
2. Demand side: global cotton consumption in the new year is expected to increase compared with the same period last year, and domestic textile clothing consumption has entered the off-season.
3. Import and export: the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton imports fluctuates at a high level, pay attention to whether there will be news related to import quotas.
4. Inventory side: the total inventory of pure cotton yarn decreases, the inventory of cotton yarn in weaving mills decreases, and the inventory of finished products accumulates gradually.
5, the international market: the global cotton supply and demand in the new year is expected to be loose, the current weather is very suitable, and the United States and Brazil are expected to increase production. At present, it is in the growing period of cotton planting in the northern hemisphere, the impact of the macro level has been weakened in the short term, and the focus of market attention has shifted to supply and demand in the new year. According to the USDA5 monthly report, it is the first time to forecast global cotton supply and demand in 2024. Global cotton production is expected to grow 4.8 per cent year-on-year to 25.921 million tons in 2024, the highest since 2019, mainly from the United States and Brazil. Cotton production in the United States is expected to increase by 32.6% to 3.484 million tons over the same period last year, while cotton production in Brazil is expected to increase by 14.6% to 363000 tons compared with the same period last year. Together, the two countries have increased by 1.319 million tons, and there is ample global cotton supply in the new year. On the demand side, although global cotton consumption also rose 3.1 per cent year-on-year in the new year, the increase was lower than the increase in production, global cotton supply and demand changed from tight to loose, and final inventory is expected to increase 3.1 per cent to 18.074 million tons year-on-year. Generally speaking, the current weather is good, the basic support in the face of cotton prices is weak, it is expected that short-term cotton prices are still under pressure, pay attention to whether there will be unexpected impact.
6. Domestic market: cotton inventory is abundant, consumption is weak, inventory of finished goods has a trend of accumulation, and fundamentals are also lack of support. On the supply side, the domestic cotton acreage this year is only slightly lower than that of the same period last year, but the weather conditions of this year are good, the per unit yield should be increased compared with the same period last year, and the total output should also increase to a certain extent, at least flat. USDA5 monthly report data forecast has a large deviation. As the demand side enters the off-season of textile and clothing consumption, the start-up load of textile enterprises decreases seasonally, and it still takes some time for terminal consumption to recover, and the demand side has a certain drag on cotton prices. From the inventory point of view, domestic cotton stocks are still high at the end of March, but we should pay attention to the impact of unreasonable changes in recent data on the market. Overall, the current domestic cotton supply and demand at both ends are difficult to find upward drive, but cotton prices have fallen to a relatively low level, the lower space is expected to be limited, low shock.
Attention: macro, weather, inventory.
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